BBC - The Editors: Part of the conspiracy?
Michael "Marsh" Marshall (13 August ) is a British skeptical activist, freelance journalist, . He has also done an interview on BBC Radio 4's More or Less programme, where he . "Merseyside Skeptics Society hold first meeting". Convention – Lifting the lid: Ongoing adventures in the world of pseudoscience". But now some websites are using news footage from BBC World on September I for one, would like to meet this modern day nostradamus. adequate explanation, and you wonder why people are being so skeptical?. This principle of international law states that even the absence of certainty about the risk of BBC Cambridgeshire is based in Cambridge, the science capital of the UK. Every contribution, big or small, will help us reach it.
Pretty much any opportunity: Even when, as is not infrequently the case, the deck is somewhat stacked against me, or the timing inadequate for anything more than a soundbite, or the question up for debate less than ideal. But this Wednesday, when I was rung up by BBC Radio Cambridgeshire and asked to come on air to debate with a climate change denier, something in me broke, and rebelled. This summerof all times? So, for almost the first time in my life, I turned it down. I told it that I will no longer be part of such charades.
By giving climate change deniers a full platform, producers make their position seem infinitely more reasonable than it is. This contributes to the spread of misinformation and miseducation around climate change that fuels the inaction producing the long emergency we are facing. From a public service broadcaster, this is simply not good enough. Was this the scorcher that finally ended climate denial?
Michael McCarthy Read more What makes it so frustrating is that there are important debates to be had around climate change. So what are their arguments, and how are they countered by scientists who assert that greenhouse gases, produced by human activity, are the cause of modern-day climate change? Most long-term data comes from weather stations Sceptic Instruments show there has been some warming of the Earth's surface sincebut the actual value is subject to large errors.
Most long-term data comes from surface weather stations.Meet the Skeptics!
Many of these are in urban centres which have been expanding and using more energy. When these stations observe a temperature rise, they are simply measuring the "urban heat island effect". In addition, coverage is patchy, with some regions of the world almost devoid of instruments.
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Data going back further than a century or two is derived from "proxy" indicators such as tree-rings and stalactites which, again, are subject to large errors. Counter Warming is unequivocal. Ocean measurements, decreases in snow cover, reductions in Arctic sea ice, longer growing seasons, balloon measurements, boreholes and satellites all show results consistent with records from surface weather stations.
The urban heat island effect is real but small; and it has been studied and corrected for. Analyses by Nasafor example, use only rural stations to calculate trends. Research has shown that if you analyse long-term global temperature rise for windy days and calm days separately, there is no difference.
If the urban heat island effect were large, you would expect to see more warming on calm days when more of the heat stays in the city. Furthermore, the pattern of warming globally doesn't resemble the pattern of urbanisation, with the greatest warming seen in the Arctic and northern high latitudes. Globally, there is a warming trend of about 0. Counter The year was exceptionally warm because of a strong El Nino event, while was unusually cold because of La Nina conditions.
Variability from year to year is expected, and picking a specific warm year to start an analysis or a cold one to end with is "cherry-picking".
If you start in or you will see a sharp rise. Furthermore, while the UK Met Office regards as the hottest year yet, Nasa thinks it was they use the same data but interpret it differently. According to the Met Office, the 10 warmest years in the modern record have all occurred since Grapes grew in northern England. Ice-bound mountain passes opened in the Alps. The Arctic was warmer in the s than it is today.
Counter There have been many periods in Earth history that were warmer than today - for example, the last interglacialyears ago or the Pliocene three million years ago.
Those variations were caused by solar forcing, the Earth's orbital wobbles or continental configurations; but none of those factors is significant today compared with greenhouse warming.
Evidence for a Medieval Warm Period outside Europe is patchy at best, and is often not contemporary with the warmth in Europe. One recent analysis showed it is warmer now than at any time in the last 2, years.
But despite decades of development they are unable to model all the processes involved; for example, the influence of clouds, the distribution of water vapour, the impact of warm seawater on ice-shelves and the response of plants to changes in water supply.
Michael Marshall (skeptic)
Climate models follow the old maxim of "you put garbage in, you get garbage out". Counter Models will never be perfect and they will never be able to forecast the future exactly. However, they are tested and validated against all sorts of data. Over the last 20 years they have become able to simulate more physical, chemical and biological processes, and work on smaller spatial scales.
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The IPCC report produced regional climate projections in detail that would have been impossible in its assessment. All of the robust results from modelling are backed up by theoretical science or observations.
Measurements show the opposite. So either the models are failing, or one set of measurements is flawed, or there are holes in our understanding of the science.
Counter Interpretation of the satellite data has not always been straightforward - but it does not show the opposite of what computer models predict.