After the Pyeongchang Olympics: Prospects for Inter-Korean Relations
modernization drive. Key words: China-Korea relations, inter-Korean relations, Jiang. Zemin, Kim Dae Jung, Kim Jong II, multilateral cooperation. Introduction1. From the early s onward, inter-Korean relations have moved fitfully and Key Words: inter-Korean relations, conflict, confrontation, coexistence, integration . As such, he asserts that inter-Korean relations and dialogue should While welcoming what he terms the “new game in rapprochement,” he.
Park's wife is killed in an assassination attempt targeting him during a speech in Seoul.
Six of the seven members shown are reported to have been killed in a bomb blast at Burma's Martyrs Mausoleum on Sunday, October 9, South Korean military strongman Chun Doo-hwan narrowly escapes a bombing in Myanmar that kills 21 people, including several cabinet ministers and presidential aides. Agents escort a woman, shown with her mouth taped shut, who was identified on her passport as Mayumi Hachiya as she arrives in Seoul from Bahrain, December 15, South Korea authorities believe she was involved in the disappearance of the Korean Air jetliner on November 29, A South Korean passenger plane is bombed, killing passengers and crew.
South Korea says the North was behind the attack. South Korean President Roh Tae-woo seeks to improve relations with the North, and the Koreas, after rounds of dialogue, sign a non-aggression pact vowing trade, travel and cultural exchanges. The Koreas also join the United Nations at the same time.
Inter-Korean relations - KoreanLII
He died on July 8 of a heart attack. Months later, North Korea signs a major nuclear deal with the United States in which it agrees to freeze and dismantle its nuclear facilities in return for two alternative nuclear power reactors that could be used to provide electricity but not bomb fuel, and an annualmetric tons of fuel oil.
Hong Jung-shik, leader of a South Korean civic group, shouts slogans during a rally against the government's sunshine policy towards North Korea, in front of the S Korean defence ministry in Seoul, Monday, July 1, The "Agreed Framework" of collapses when US officials confront Pyongyang over a secret nuclear programme using enriched uranium.
The odds on such occurring were dramatically slashed according to prominent pundits in the U. Apparently, the atmosphere was not so different in North Korea. In what few could have predicted, the fear of war, which had felt so real until the end of last year, has gradually evaporated since the beginning of the New Year. Instead the two Koreas entered a thaw in relations through cooperation on the successful staging of the Pyeongchang Olympics.
Plans are underway not only to hold an inter-Korean summit in April, but also one between the U. The key question, however, is whether the inter-Korean thaw is sustainable? To answer this, it is first necessary to analyze the background motivations of the three parties, namely, North Korea, South Korea, and the U. Second to clarify the conditions for its maintenance, and third, to present scenarios for future developments.
This in turn has been prompted by several factors which are important to consider. In other words, North Korea stopped just short of the red line which could provoke an American preemptive military strike. Secondly, the change to a liberal administration in South Korea under Moon Jae-in in Mayalso coincidentally opened the door for North Korea to probe rapprochement. While North Korea, according to its completion of its nuclear forces, may also have reached out to a conservative South Korea administration, it is highly likely that the pace of progress and expansion in inter-Korean rapprochement both during and since the Pyeongchang Olympics would not have been the same.
Opportune timing aside, it is obvious that the considerable pressure on North Korea has also contributed to it coming to the dialogue table. Inthe U.
It must, therefore, have calculated that it was better to try sooner rather than later, from a position of relative strength, to find a settlement with its adversaries. Finally, more active Chinese cooperation with the U.
North Korea–South Korea relations
With all these developments, North Korea must have arrived at a juncture to reassess its fortunes between continuing outright confrontation, with the real risk of provoking war, or to engage in a policy of cautiously testing the possibilities of a de-escalation of tensions. Costing it little to make such verbal pledges, they have yet to be tested, however.South Korea announces plans to reconnect Inter-Korea Railway - TomoNews
South Korea and the U. Since its inauguration in Maythe heightened possibility of a war on the Korean peninsula has been the most serious concern for the Moon administration. It has tried to deescalate tensions, appealed to North Korea to return to the path of denuclearization, and made attempts to mediate talks between the U.
With this success, the Moon administration has become more confident and optimistic in its North Korea policy and in the prospects for deepening inter-Korean rapprochement. Though, as usual, the U. Simultaneously, however, he has ratcheted up the ante through promoting hard-liners in his administration such as Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Advisor.
In sum, the thaw in relations has been enabled because the three parties have agreed, tacitly or explicitly, to play with the new game of rapprochement. But in better understanding the motivations of the parties, this also allows us to see the inherent constraints and opportunities ahead.
Any conflict can be divided into two phases of confrontation and resolution. The town was evacuated and South Korea warned of stern retaliation, with President Lee Myung-bak ordering the destruction of a nearby North Korea missile base if further provocation should occur.
The crisis was marked by extreme escalation of rhetoric by the new North Korean administration under Kim Jong-un and actions suggesting imminent nuclear attacks against South Korea, Japan, and the United States. On March 31, following an exchange of artillery fire into the waters of the NLL, a North Korean drone was found crashed on Baengnyeongdo. The South Korean government accused the North of planting the mine, which the North denied. After that South Korea restarted propaganda broadcasts to the North.
South Korea launched several artillery rounds in response.
There were no casualties in the South, but some local residents evacuated. Despite peace talks between South Korea and North Korea on September 9, regarding the North's missile test, North Korea continued to progress with its missile testing.
Key moments in inter-Korean relations
North Korea carried out its fifth nuclear test as part of the state's 68th anniversary since its founding. South Korea hailed it as a success. In Pyongyang, an agreement titled the "Pyongyang Joint Declaration of September " was signed by both Korean leaders  The agreement calls for the removal of landmines, guard posts, weapons, and personnel in the JSA from both sides of the North-South Korean border. The United States has also allowed the exemption.
There have been exemptions for people-to-people exchanges or events, but this is the first time that an exemption was granted for a cooperative project. This was the first time a South Korean train went into North Korean territory since On December 10, The Unification Ministry of South Korea said the budget allocated for cooperation and exchange projects with North Korea has exceeded one trillion won about mil dollars for the first time in three years.
Of the total budget for inter-Korean cooperation, some billion has been earmarked to implement cross-border summit agreements, including the rail connection project, and to lay the groundwork for South-North economic cooperation. Over billion won is set aside for efforts to resolve humanitarian issues.